Investment Perspectives

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U.S.-China Decoupling By The Numbers

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Politicians in the U.S. do not want to face the uncomfortable reality about the nation's trade deficit.

Michael Wilson Confirms There's No Crystal Ball

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The star Morgan Stanley strategist, who nailed the 2022 bear market, issued a mea culpa after his rough 2023.

Inflation Head Fake Should Keep Fed On Guard

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Signs of an economic rebound are mounting, pointing to a return of policy angst for the Fed next year.

Recent Small-Cap Gains May Signal Sustained Growth

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The summer upswing coincides with that of a confluence of long-term growth patterns.

A Humbling Economy For Economists

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Many major macroeconomic developments over the past year have departed from the consensus forecast.

Our Pensions Shouldn't Be Used To Juice The Economy

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Efforts to increase the share of private equity investment in retirement funds are misguided and dangerous.

Austerity Ruined Europe, And Now It's Back

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While America enjoys an investment boom, European life will continue to get pricier as real wages fall and job quality worsens.

Earnings Need To Do Some Heavy Lifting To Keep This Rally Going

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The latest data slightly raised the odds of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.

Divided Public Believed Enough In Fed To Avoid A Recession

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The central bank's reservoir of credibility has allowed it to cut inflation without tipping the economy into a downturn.

Is The U.S. Economy Headed For A Soft Landing?

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There is no reason to assume that the U.S. economy will experience a major downturn this year or in 2024.

Markets Are Propelled By What Hasn't Happened

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Interest-rate risk has not translated into any material credit risk--a relief that traders are happy to run with.

BlackRock Portfolios Work For Investors But Not Advisors

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Advisors have no financial incentive to transition their clients to off-the-rack ETF offerings.

Inflation Is Dead. Duck And Cover.

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A sharp correction is highly likely, and things will get pretty bumpy.

Asset Allocation Risks And Opportunities

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Here are potential risks and opportunities as we move into the second half of the year.

Tech-Led Stock Rally Is Missing Some Exuberance

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Bets on unprofitable companies are tamer than usual, signaling tempered zeal for equities.

Fixed Income May Offer Compelling Options

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No matter how investors choose to gain exposure, there are compelling options across most major fixed-income sectors.

Options For Addressing Risk In A Concentrated Portfolio

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Listed derivatives can help mitigate both idiosyncratic and market risks while avoiding tax friction.

The Great U.S. Treasury Bond Rout Is Far From Over

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A reawakened bond market might force U.S. politicians to finally get the country's fiscal house in order.

Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz Was A Misunderstood Economist

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His Modern Portfolio Theory forced a fundamental change in investing assumptions, but its central insight remains theoretical.

A 2% Inflation Rate Still Sounds About Right

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Arguments for a higher target persist, but a steady rate of 4% simply isn't sustainable politically.

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